Draw Bias

Draw Bias

If you have ever attended or watched on television racing from the UK’s four All Weather tracks you will be acutely aware that each have some bias dependant on draw. Those drawn badly will need to expend a degree of energy to overcome the disadvantage to get a suitable position and tuck in or face losing lengths running five, six even seven horses deep around the sweeping bends.

Most will be aware that the degree of bias changes at each track dependant on the distance. This is usually determined by the proximity of the stalls to the first bend. Most statisticians simply look at the winning frequency of any given draw and from this determine whether it is favourable to be drawn low, middle or high.

I am a strong believer in that if the data can be investigated further to give me an advantage go and get it. The missing ingredients from above have to be ‘Number of Runners’ + ‘Non Runners’ + ‘Last time out’. As an example a horse draw 7 in a 14 runner race and a horse that is drawn 7 in a 7 runner race in my eyes are two entirely different proposition but both drawn 7.

I appreciate that it is likely to take a lot of racing before you have establish reliable percentages covering all permutations but it is important to remember that the percentages can not be used at face value but as a guide to whether your selections chances are enhanced by that draw, whether its chance is not hindered by the draw or whether it is in the coffin box.

We will never be able to ascertain the quality and level of fitness of every horse that ran from stall 5 over 6f at Lingfield but, if you have good percentages for stall 4 and stall 6, the fact that stall 5 is 0% should not deter you. Eventually when you have enough data it will become clear where the bias lies and where the percentages drop.

The next consideration ‘Non Runners’ is the nuisance factor. This is where we have to look at the race retrospectively as for the purpose of your stats a ‘Non-Runner’ and a ‘Withdrawn’ horse are completely different. If a horse is declared a non-runner and does not go down to the start its box is not numbered and stalls art numbered for the remainder of horses. So, we have a 14 runner field. The horses drawn 5, 8 and 10 are non runners. The stalls handlers number the stalls 1,2,3,4,6,7,9,11 and 12 with no empty boxes. In affect those horses drawn above 5 will all be drawn differently than your racing press report further still the results will still reflect the wrong draws. The affect is quiet dramatic when you consider 6 is now in 5, 7 is now in 6, 9 is now in 7, 11 is now in 8 potentially a completely different proposition.

So what of withdrawn horses? In our same race if the horse drawn 3 bolts at the start and is withdrawn there will be an empty stall 3 so nothing changes!
Having emphasised the importance of the draw and keeping accurate records is not only for its relevance in the race at hand but in the form line of the horses previous race(s). Not only from the perspective of horses producing poor figures from bad draws but horses previous performances that have been enhanced by a good draw.